Vulnerable trump, improved Kim Jong-UN: what’s behind the belligerence of North Korea

North Korea methodically finishes off the “historical achievements” of trump and his rating

Coronavirus, economic decline, protests and riots – it’s not all the trouble that had befallen US President Donald trump in the midst of the election campaign. Its “five out” in the downgrade of the U.S. President gave his “good friend” Kim Jong-UN in the most uncomfortable for trump’s time to “bury” the process of negotiations on nuclear disarmament of North Korea. Why not work one idea is to fix the trump and what is the consequence of withdrawal of the DPRK from the negotiation process, to understand the website Today.

Where the wind blows

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Experts of the website “Today” I see several reasons for the deterioration of relations between the DPRK and the United States.

“First, the Singapore Declaration is an illusion created by trump and Kim Jong-UN. It’s about nothing. The only specific things in the document is the search for and repatriation of remains of American prisoners of war. This they quickly did in 2018. The remaining two items – common words. But all went and solemnly spoke of the need to implement the agreement. Said simply because the alternative to it is war. But each of the parties invested in the need to execute a Declaration of their own. USA meant nuclear disarmament. North Korea – lifting of sanctions and economic assistance. Today we know from Bolton, that trump promised that Kim Jong Ynu. But, again, the problem is not that someone something is not fulfilled. The problem is that the original agreement was illusory,” – said in comments to the website “Today” expert on international policy and the Middle East the analytical center “Ukrainian Institute for the future” Iliya Kusa.

Secondly, according to experts, Pyongyang understands that trump is now the elections. And demonstration of international failures it to anything.

“The North Korean authorities understand that trump’s elections soon and that he was hard now. I think that they take this element into account and are now trying to provide for trump’s pressure. Like, come on, do us concessions, or we’ll start all sorts of unpleasant things to do that will affect your ranking. Hence it is indicative, under the camera, shooting the node. It’s such a slap in the face to the States, because this building was built two Koreas just with the active assistance of the United States. And it really hits the ratings of trump: he’s put a lot of personal political capital in these negotiations. He personally participated in them, he was the initiator. And he went to them, contrary to the opinion of many of his closest advisers, who were then fired. And now it turns out that it was all in vain. That is, the North Koreans press on a sore point trump in the hope that the US will once again pay attention to them to resume negotiations. Maybe even do something specific – not limited to any declarations,” said Iliya Kusa.

In favor of this version can speak and the fact that “lead to escalation” Kim Jong Eun instructed his sister. The leader of the DPRK remains outside the conflict, is willing, if necessary, again warmly shake hands with the Trump.

Such opinion and head of the Center for military and legal researches of Alexander Musienko. However, he notes, and inter-the causes of the current escalation. And what “bandwagon” Trump in the midst of the campaign can stand China.

“We remember that a few months ago on the political stage came the sister of Kim Jong-UN. Today it is, in fact, led the scrapping of the policy of peaceful settlement. Because if you look at the last two years, we can say a definite warming between the U.S. and North Korea and between two Koreas. Now it falls. Kim yo-Jong, as it demonstrates the US: see what can be if you will not make concessions. This may be an indication that at this point in North Korea has strengthened its position of the “hawks”. But I also do not exclude that against the current actions of North Korea, at least, doesn’t mind China. And although he, despite all the friction with the administration trump, showed calm and restraint, do not exclude that thus the PRC sends a signal to the White house: look, we have a sore point for you, like North Korea. Don’t forget about it,” – said Alexander Musienko.

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Фрагмент генеалогического дерева семейства Ким

A fragment of the genealogical tree of the family Kim

According to him, it is also possible that China had a hand in the rise of Kim Yu-Jeong.

“I don’t think China have it all organized to “avenge” Trump for his stance and anti-Chinese rhetoric. First, China is not interested in the nuclear status of the DPRK, because supported initiatives trump. Secondly, Beijing is not so much effect on Pyongyang that “on call” to organize the escalation. But the fact that in this case, the interests of China and the DPRK are somewhere the same, Yes. China, I think, not a little against what is called “trolling” trump, to a reasonable limit, of course. And it is beneficial to put pressure on trump to weaken its rating. The Korean factor in China is just playing into the hands of” – said Ilya Kusa.

According to experts, in the end the US and the DPRK will sooner or later return to negotiations. By and large, for Donald trump it was extremely beneficial to demonstrate to the electorate serious progress in such a painful question just before the election. However, will this “friend Kim Jong-UN”, and if you go, then what price will demand – one more question.

The development of relations between the US and the DPRK at the trump

Denuclearization, that is, the reduction of North Korea of its nuclear Arsenal with a promising future, full refusal of nuclear power status, was (and still is) one of the key topics on which trump was built up by their opponents. North Korea, Iran, international institutions, the place and the U.S. role in the world – the position of the trump on these issues can be described succinctly: “if Only the Obama.”

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Under Obama (as well as under his predecessors) U.S. policy toward North Korea was a “strategic timing”. By and large, the Obama administration did not make super efforts in order to solve the “Korean question” – if something has been done, rather, to “test the waters”. The reasons for such a strategy, in General, were attempts to reach agreement with the North Korean authorities made over decades, to anything did not lead. And the US proposals in the age of Obama, the DPRK replied to the counter, is absolutely unacceptable to Washington. In the end, tightened the sanctions noose on the neck of Pyongyang, the U.S. has calmed down.

Than not fail to take advantage of the trump, in the midst of the last election campaign saying something like: “Here, the Democrats can’t solve the problem, and I’ll decide”. The Republican nominee expressed a willingness to even meet with Kim Jong Inom. “I would say Kim Jong-UN. I wouldn’t have a problem with to speak with him”, – said trump on one of meetings with voters.

Now, when we know that trump did meet with Kim Jong-UN (and not once) and even visited the territory of the DPRK, such a statement is perceived calmly. In 2016, it produced a bombshell. Because of 60 years of U.S.-North Korea conflict never an American President met with the North Korean leader.

In the mouth of trump’s “sample 2016” solution to the North Korean issue in General look process easy and effortless. Which never materialized only because of the laziness and incompetence of the previous government. “China exports many billions of dollars from our country. Billions. And we have huge power over China. China can solve this problem with North Korea one meeting or one phone call”, – told the trump voters in 2016.

The words of the candidate fell on grateful soil: scared another test of the hydrogen bomb and the creation of rockets of distant radius of action the Americans really wanted to “solve the problem”. Highly rigid sanctions, which Obama in 2016, spent through the UN security Council, no longer seemed a panacea. In contrast to the fresh initiatives of the trump. It is difficult to say how much the candidate added votes in his piggy Bank these statements, but it is obvious that the solution of the North Korea issue to meet the desires of the American people.

Enemies

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To honor trump, he has not forgotten about the promise immediately after the inauguration, and began methodically to implement their own ideas. First, however, without much success. Pyongyang on the initiative, Washington struck up the familiar song, “the morning of sanctions – night talks”. And to be more convincing, their determination have stepped up nuclear tests and development of missiles.

However, the new American President very quickly made it clear that with him such jokes will not pass. Sending to the shores of Korea American squadron, trump has threatened Pyongyang with “fire and fury”.

Aggravating the situation by both sides continued through 2017. The DPRK threatened to direct their missiles at GUAM, located where the strategic U.S. military base. Trump did not rule out that the US decides the “Korean question” by military means.

In the confrontation between the leaders of the United States and the DPRK did not hesitate to get personal. “Crazy American man certainly certainly going to tame the fire!” – said in a televised address, Kim Jong-UN. “Kim Jong Ynu from North Korea – obviously, a madman, who does not hesitate to starve and kill its own people, have such a test, which hasn’t happened yet!” retorted on Twitter trump.

In General, the conflict flared up like wildfire. The DPRK, the UN stated that the world is on the brink of nuclear war. And, in General, it was close to the truth.

Friends

But then suddenly, the trump brand in your style again changed the rhetoric to “guys, let’s live together”. Again he suggested Kim Jong Ynu to meet. This time, Pyongyang seized the opportunity to save face (and possibly country), paying off advanced quite so far in the conflict.

Дональд Трамп и Ким Чен Ын. Фото: REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Donald trump and Kim Jong-UN. Photo: REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Then followed another meeting at the summit in Hanoi. It ended with failure: trump broke off talks ahead of time and left the capital of Vietnam. In turn, North Korea called the talks a “lost chance” for the Americans.

However, in August last year, trump met again with North Korean leader on neutral territory between South Korea and North Korea. And even (again for the first time among American presidents) stepped on North Korean land. But this meeting, during which the trump, by his own admission, tried to save the talks, did not end the breakthrough. “It’s great for television images, but is not effective for resolving the issue of North Korean nuclear weapons”, – approximately so has estimated a historic step trump his opponents in the United States. More attempts to negotiate in the course of personal meetings with “a friend of Kim Jong-UN,” trump was taken.

Ким Чен Ын и Дональд Трамп. Фото: KCNA via REUTERS

Kim Jong-UN and Donald trump. Photo: KCNA via REUTERS

Here are the first trump

Meanwhile, the negotiations of the working groups at different levels slipped more and was stuck on controversial issues all the more reliable. In the end, the process of convergence, which is moved neither good nor bad, has stopped altogether. And then even turned in the opposite direction. Trump, however, permanent not forget Twitter to drop a few words about a wonderful relationship with the North Korean dictator. But tweets on the subject appeared less, and the overtures to the leader of the DPRK were all bought. “Personally, I’m glad he’s back in business, and that it’s all good” – so, for example, trump reacted to the emergence of Kim Jong-UN in public after long absence. Given the emotionality of the American President, we can say that this message – the top restraint, which is linked to irritation – one step.

The reasons for restraint were not only in the fact that the DPRK flatly refused to compromise. North Korea is not simply “showed temper”, but started doing it in the most inconvenient to trump form (publicly) and most uncomfortable for the trump time (before presidential elections).

In the middle of June the troops of the DPRK on the orders of the sisters and the closest aide of Kim Jong-UN – Kim-Jeong – shot communication node, located in neutral territory and used for negotiations with South Korea. Earlier, the DPRK strongly reacted to the distribution of leaflets by South Korean activists and North Korean defectors on its territory. At the same time Pyongyang has refused to hold talks with Seoul in order to settle the situation. In principle, for the aggravation of inter-Korean relations. However, it was obvious that it stands for including dissatisfaction with DPRK as talks with the United States.

At the same time, Pyongyang is willing to raise rates, routinely threatening all and Sundry with war and denouncing fragile and, in General, not specific agreements that failed to reach the Trump. And officials of the DPRK foreign Ministry reiterated that the DPRK refused to resume negotiations with the United States, while Washington will not cease to demonstrate a “hostile policy.” In General, it seems like there was three historical meetings, the signing of the agreement in Singapore and the feet of the American President on North Korean soil.

Despite the “friendship” with trump, North Korea, in fact, did not stop testing missiles: