Significant growth this year can not wait.
In the second quarter of 2020 the Ukrainian economy will decrease by 10% compared to the same period last year. This is due to restrictions which were introduced in the country in connection with the pandemic coronavirus. In this case, before the end of the year, the economy will not recover fully, reports the Chronicle.info with reference to Country.
This is with reference to the analytical data reported by Reuters.
So, this year Ukraine has seen the deepest recession since the annexation by Russia of Crimea and the outbreak of military conflict in the Donbass, which led to the fall in the second quarter of 2015 14.5% year on year.
“Indicators of economic activity can expand the depth of the crisis; we expect that the decline in the second quarter will reach 10% year on year,” say analysts at the investment company ICU.
Ukraine has signed a loan agreement for $ 5 billion with the International monetary Fund to fight the economic downturn, but last week the market was shocked by the resignation of the head of the NBU.
Analysts note that strong performance in the agricultural sector, which began the harvest of grain, can offset part of the damage to the economy from the pandemic of coronavirus, but consumer demand and investor activity in 2020 will remain weak.
They predict that the gross domestic product of Ukraine will shrink by 5.5% yoy in the third quarter and 3.0% in the fourth quarter.
The state statistics service will release GDP data for the second quarter in mid-August. In the first quarter, the economy contracted by 1.3% compared with growth of 2.9% in the first quarter of last year.
Twelve analysts polled by Reuters, believe that the Ukrainian economy will shrink by 6.5% compared to growth of 3.2% in 2019. The government expects a fall in 2020 by 4.8%.