Ukrainians are predicting mass unemployment due to coronavirus

The number of unemployed could exceed 3.5 million people

In Ukraine stopped the growth of unemployment caused by the quarantine, according to the Ministry of economic development, trade and agriculture. Data of the state service statistics for the first quarter of this year also show that the unemployed became less. But the labor market experts are sure: not everything is so smooth. What is actually the situation on the labour market, understand the website Today.

What counted statistics

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According to estimates of the state Statistics, in the first quarter, unemployment amounted to 8.6% of the working population is 0.1% less than in the fourth quarter of 2019. All we have, according to the methodology of the International labour organization (ILO), there are 16.5 million people of working age, ie those who have reached the age of 15-70 years. This is 40% of the population, the rest – children, people with disabilities and seniors. Including pensioners 11.3 million people, but about 1 million of them continue to work.

“Idle hands” – 1,5 million Of them men – 51% women – 49%, residents – 66%, rural residents 34%. Given that, according to state Statistics, urban residents we have twice more than rural, it appears that the unemployment rate in the city and in rural areas per capita is almost the same.

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Seeking employment

Experts in the field of employment of the population say that statistics on unemployment in the first quarter is significantly below the data about the real situation on the labour market in the second quarter. And the reasons for this are obvious: an epidemic of coronavirus and quarantine, which in April and may left without a job millions of people.

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According to the state employment service on June 1, 2020, the accounting was 1.2 million people. Of these, 511 thousand persons had the status of unemployed, including 425 thousand persons received unemployment assistance (it usually is administered from the first day of registration, and after a week or more). It is small – an average of RS 1800 per month.

Among the registered unemployed men amounted to 218 thousand people (43%), women – 293 thousand people (57%).

Age groups: 30% up to 35 years; 29% – 35 to 44 years; 41% – more than 45 years.

Education: 49% had higher education; 34% – vocational; 17% is the average.

By types of economic activity: 19% were engaged in trade; 16% – in processing industry; 15% in public administration, defence, compulsory social security; 13% – in agriculture, forestry and fisheries.

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Professional groups: professionals in the field of trade and services (18%); working on maintenance, operation of equipment and machines (17%); employees and managers (14%); representatives of elementary occupations (13%).

As you can see, among the 1.5 million unemployed looking for work not all, but approximately one-third receiving assistance from the state. The rest – about one million people listed “on the exchange”, but in fact working abroad, the so-called migrant workers, or in domestic economy.

Where and how looking for a job

According to HR portals, more than half of applicants (53%) are now looking for jobs, not placing summary.

For best results, applicants use an average of 3 ways, informed us experts portal OLX Robot. The majority of respondents (88%) prefer specialized sites, 56% turn to friends and relatives, 43% are looking for work through social networks. Online and offline sources combined 68%, completely “digitalnih” search engines – 28%. And only 4% rely on traditional non-digital methods.

Also, according to the portal, speccycle use 100% of employers.

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How often interested candidates for hired labour, and what jobs most in demand – see infographic.

What has been done to the authorities

In Ukraine since the second half of June, the number of unemployed had not increased, said the Minister of economic development, trade and agriculture of Ukraine Igor Petrashko. But the competition has doubled – one vacancy claim 4-6 people.

“The last two weeks of June, we see that the number of unemployed is increasing. The program, initiated by the government, work and show results. Since the beginning of the coronavirus, that is, from mid-March, are employed by the employment centers, “Ukravtodor”, “Ukrpochta” – more than 150 thousand people. Another 200 jobs were saved through the program for partial unemployment”, said Petrashko.

The Ministry said 216 of thousands of workers (more than 71 thousand — FLP) receive funds under the program of assistance for partial unemployment.

What awaits workers in the third quarter

According to independent HR expert Tatyana Pushkinoj now easier than a month or two ago, to apply for a seasonal job, though the job less than a year ago, 25% – about 15 thousand But often work in resort towns you can find right on the spot.

“The salaries are impressive, not everyone, but, for example, greenhouses for growing vegetables, you can earn 12 thousand UAH, a chef – of 9 thousand UAH and maid – of 9 thousand UAH gardener – 6 thousand UAH, a food vendor on the beach – 13 thousand UAH, but the work of the piece – gave examples Tatyana Pashkina. – Applicants for seasonal work should pay attention not only on salary but on benefits. Can pay a little, but will provide housing, meals, uniforms, that is to win by reducing costs.”

But economists believe that seasonal work will not save, and in the third quarter, unemployment will grow significantly.

According to the head of the Council of entrepreneurs under the Cabinet of Andrew Zablovskogo, unemployment in the III quarter from 9.1 to 9.2 percent.

“The growing number of unemployed will continue as the labor market, even after the easing of the quarantine restrictions will continue to be able to “knock-down”, pandemic coronavirus,” explained Andrew Zablovsky.

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The more rigid the forecast the Vice President for economic policy in the Ukrainian Union of Industrialists and entrepreneurs Viktor Skarshevsky: the unemployed will soon be almost 1.5 times more than now.

“As a result of the introduction of a total quarantine and mass return of labor migrants, the number of unemployed, according to my estimates, increased by 2 times, 1.5 – 2 million people and reached about 3-3,5 million people, or 15-17% of the working population – said Viktor Skarshevsky. – According to the updated IMF forecast, the number of unemployed in Ukraine in 2020 will increase by 1.5 times – from 8.5% in 2019 to 12.6% in 2020”.

Experts conclude: labour market came the dictates of the employer, not the employee. So those who are looking for a place is to restrain the appetites of salary, and those who already have jobs that pay on time, we should think twice before writing a letter of resignation.

But even despite the crisis on the labour market, there are professions, the holders of which “grab”. For details, refer to the plot of “Today”: