The forecast for the development of a pandemic coronavirus in Ukraine: what scientists say

Scientists believe that not all suspicious cases fall into the official statistics

Morbidity statistics coronavirus COVID-19in Ukraine last week demonstrated positive dynamics. Statistics are much better than forecasts for a second consecutive week.

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This is stated in the latest forecast of the working group on mathematical modeling problems related to the epidemic of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in Ukraine for the period from 3 to 10 July 2020 and issued by the press service of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, scientists have concerns regarding the increase in the proportion of symptomatic infected and hospitalized.

“Data analysis of the most affected regions, showed that during June increased the proportion hospitalized and the number of suspicions almost equal to the number of identified infections. This indirectly may indicate the decrease in the proportion of detected infections. Therefore, the real dynamics may be less optimistic that the official statistics”, – stated in the forecast.

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Experts say that in Ukraine in General, the trend is neutral, but for each area the forecast scenario in different directions. The average in Ukraine for the entire period of data collection every second of suspected infection is confirmed.

So, the graph below shows that during June are significantly larger Lviv, Rivne and Transcarpathian region. Kiev is growing slightly, and Chernivtsi region has a neutral trend. A sharp drop in recent days, for all regions due to the fact that on these dates at the time of the study was not to test results.

“With each new identification, on average, spent 15 PCR tests. Is not entirely clear the order of definition of suspicion and the use of PCR tests, because even with double testing of each unconfirmed suspicion is more than 10 PCR tests for each patient. Probably not all suspect cases fall into the official statistics”, – said the press service.

The Academy of Sciences predict 876 infected during the day on July 10 (the average number between 698-1065) and an average of 18 deaths every day (16-21).

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The graph below shows the “change in time of the reproductive number according to the calibration of the mathematical model of SEIR-U”, without indications of calculations of this number.

Meanwhile, over the past day in the country recorded 914 new cases COVID-19. Total 47 677 confirmed cases of infection. This is evidenced by the monitoring system of the national security Council. Recovered from COVID-19 21 155 (+597 3 July), deaths – 1 227 (+15).

Earlier , the state statistics showed the data about deaths from COVID-19. The site States that from this disease died nine Ukrainians. At the same time, flu and pneumonia became the cause of death 1974 people.