U.S. elections: Biden went into the lead, but to trump all is not lost

As ratings trump and Biden have been affected by the coronavirus, protests and riots in the United States and book Bolton

Tuesday, June 23, in the USA there have been two significant events. The democratic party held primaries in Kentucky and second in the number of electors the state of the country – new York, “playing” in total, 328 electoral votes. And in stores across the country went on sale the book of the former US presidential Advisor for national security John Bolton “the Room where it all happened: a memoir of the White house”. As the first event, under other circumstances, would have become the TOP news, it does not matter for the democratic candidate Joe Biden, so the latter is of great importance for the candidate of the Republicans, the current US President Donald trump.

Unprincipled primaries

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New York as one of the key, from the electoral point of view, States of the United States for many years gave up on political ambitions than one candidate for U.S. President. It was after winning the primaries in new York in 2016, trump came out to his supporters with the message that its main competitor in the primaries – Senator from Texas Ted Cruz has “practically destroyed from a mathematical point of view.” And Democrat Hillary Clinton, who won the same Bernie Sanders – saying that the race came to the finish line, and her victory is not far off.

In the primaries 2020, everything is different. In fact, the uncontested Republican candidate Donald trump, in fact, initially guaranteed a place on the ballot. Democrat John Biden had to fight and even seriously worried at the initial stage, when the first primaries, it was around the same Bernie Sanders and other candidates from the democratic party. Gradually, however, the competitors in the political race was out of the race, while supporting Biden. And in April ended their campaign the main rival ex-Vice-President of US – Sanders. Thus, three months before the end of the primaries and Caucus and four by the Congress party, which will officially nominate its candidate for the election, Biden secured the nomination.

Early definition of a candidate, of course, was a plus for the Democrats, and, of course, the Biden. If previously significant part of the forces and means Biden spent to repel the attacks of the other candidates (making it less favorable position compared to the position of the trump), but now all the power of the propaganda machine of the Democrats focused on criticizing the incumbent. And it immediately affected the results.

Bookies bet on Biden

According to various sociological studies, Biden and the start of the campaign ahead of trump on the level of sympathy among Americans. However, in may – early June, trends in the gap between the candidates has increased. Of course, the role played not only an active campaign of Biden and his positioning as a “single candidate” from the Democrats. Just a special public activity (especially with the beginning of the epidemic coronavirus) Joe Biden was no different. A major blow to the rating of the incumbent President caused the outbreak on its background of economic crisis, rising unemployment. And became the final chord of mass protests and riots in the United States of America, which began in late may after the murder police black George Floyd.

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In the end, at the beginning of June, opinion polls showed a steady lead of former Vice President from the incumbent in the 8-13%. However, according to experts of the site “Today”, it still about what does not speak. As we told the analyst, “deminitsiativy” name Ilka Kucheriv Petro burkovsky, protests did not affect the ranking of trump dramatically.

Source: edition.cnn.com

“If you look at voter attitudes trump and Biden to the same protests, we can clearly see that in the electorate of the two candidates they practically do not render influence. Among voters, Biden protests supported by 80% of the population. Among voters trump such less – 60%. But the American President at the beginning made the necessary “ritual” statements need to end this police brutality, then decided to reform the police. That is, by and large, also supported the demands of peaceful protesters. Thus, the dissonance between the views of the President and his supporters did not arise”, – said Petr burkovsky.

The increase of the separation of Biden the incumbent President, he explains the public assessment of the actions and positions of the President and his administration during an outbreak of the coronavirus.

“I would say to trump all is not lost. The only thing you can see: Biden, due to the extremely ineffective against coronavirus teams trump, is now in a more advantageous position. But first, the elections are still four months, and the main struggle is still ahead. Second, American society is more or less clearly structured prior to the start of the campaign. His opinion nuclear electorate trump and Biden will not change. But the current gap is due to the people who are wavering. And such wavering and undecided are still many problems. It is their voices is a struggle,” says Petr burkovsky.

This opinion is shared by political analyst Maxim dzhigun.

“Indeed, coronavirus and protests hit the rating of trump. This is confirmed by the opinion polls, and even the bookmakers started to bet on the victory of Biden. But do not forget that the trump there are several winning sides that, when used properly, can rectify the situation. Trump has a more powerful media support, the media trump is more recognizable, more charismatic. Although they are almost the same age Biden, trump looks more young and fresh. As for Biden, he often makes mistakes, reservations, sometimes behaving aggressively towards those who do not share his views. I heard that the spin doctors over this to try to minimize the speech Biden in public, bringing the campaign into the virtual plane. Thus, the advantages of Biden are balanced by more acceptable to voters (especially undecided) personal qualities trump,” – said Maxim dzhigun.

Bolton denounces

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In fact, on the personal qualities of the current President and was struck on Tuesday, a crushing blow. In the book, the former assistant to trump John Bolton these points are given special attention. By and large, a memoir of Bolton, you can compare if not “nuclear strike” on the positions of trump, the dense bombed with vacuum bombs.

In the book the acting President presented as entirely ignorant of the man for whom the difficulty is not only questions of governance but also basic questions in geography, history, international relations. So, Bolton cited a number of cases, when trump was genuinely surprised the new facts. For example, what Britain is, it appears, is in the nuclear club that Finland is not part of Russia.

The trump international is described as a weak negotiator who gives out promises right and left, than his counterpart often used. In this regard, Bolton mentions and bad for the United States, in his view, trump talks with Vladimir Putin. And concessions to the leaders of North Korea – Kim Jong Ynu and China – XI Jinping.

But perhaps the main accusation, sounding in his memoirs, is passing through the whole book of accusations of political incompetence. Bolton notes that trump doesn’t burden itself with strategic planning, acting impulsively and chaotically. “Trump did not follow any international Grand strategy or even a consistent trajectory. His mind was like an archipelago of individual thoughts” – I quote the book Bolton’s American media.

Of course, the trump team has done everything possible to such a hard-hitting memoir never saw the light. Especially in the midst of the campaign. The book tried to ban, referring to the possible existence of state secrets. But after checking the text of the state bodies and Stripping its author of these claims has disappeared. Then as a pretext for a lawsuit in court used was the fact that Bolton is not acquainted with the manuscript of the employer – that is the White house. However, the court decided that there is no violation. Any other actions the team trump was not enough already neither the time nor the energy. Moreover, the room for maneuver of the incumbent President were limited: perhaps anticipating resistance from trump, Bolton pre-sent hundreds of copies of the book to influential analysts, politicians, etc. to Further the struggle only fueled would be scandalous interest in memoirs among ordinary Americans, despite the fact that the contents of the book still would have known.

“Out of the memoirs caused a serious blow Trump says Petr burkovsky. Bolton is a popular representative of the establishment, which focused on the conservative part of the Republican party. And, of course, the book will have an impact on the future course of the campaign. And it will affect just not even on the electorate trump directly. Greater threat to trump’s will be that after its exit from funding his campaign can give up some sponsors. After the election, the candidates are fighting not only for voters but also for the sponsors, the generosity of which depends on the activity of the campaign and in the end the victory”, – said the expert.

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According to Peter Bourkovski, it can play a fatal role the pragmatism of the business community.

“There is no question the reputation, the image of the sponsors for which they can worry. A purely pragmatic approach. Financing policy, what they expect from him, at least, reasonable, realistic, balanced decisions. But when they say that a person is not able to take a punch, think strategically, decisions are made randomly, they ask themselves the question: instead it threatens our business?”.

The ACE in the hole Biden

As noted by Maxim dzhigun, the Democrats, most likely, remains in stock of many strong trumps against the current American President. One of them can become a team.

“According to rumors that circulate in American expert circles, Pete Buttidzhich withdrew in favour of Biden at the beginning of the elections is not just. Tipped him a Vice President. And generally will output at a higher level, to the next election, he could go from the Democrats. And I think it will be one of the main candidates, perhaps even uncontested. Buttidzhich – a young, popular, Biden finds it very promising. In General, the Democrats will take a course in rejuvenation. I can not judge it, but at least say so. And, especially, the need for rejuvenation of the party the Democrats have really matured,” – said Maxim dzhigun.

As for trump, he is limited in using this election tool as inviting famous people.

“He is at every corner says how well he works with his team. It would therefore be illogical to change someone from sign individuals on the other is significant”, – said Maxim dzhigun.

Trump puts on States

However, trump has trumps. One of which, unfortunately, Ukraine.

“Of course, the trump will use any opportunity to snatch victory. And the Ukrainian “case of the Biden” one of them” – says Petr burkovsky.

The benefit of trump is played, according to experts, significant information resources and the mobility of the President.

“You have to remember that the system of elections of the President of the United States is built so that very important victory in key States. The more States will be visited by the candidate, the more active it will work in some important States, the more chances he has to win. Trump in 2016, the year he lost the vote but won the election by winning several key States” – recalls the expert.

Meanwhile, protests in the US, which by the middle of June and I went down, again resumed. The reason – another police killing of black citizen: