Ukraine is moving in the “yellow scenario.”
The Ministry of health has modeled the 81 scenario future course of the pandemic coronavirus in Ukraine. As stated by the chief sanitary doctor Viktor Lyashko Thursday, June 18, from them selected three, reports the Chronicle.info with reference to the Correspondent.
“We counted 81 scenario that may develop on the territory of Ukraine, the epidemic of coronavirus. But in retrospect now chose the three most optimistic scenario, which take into account is the seasonality in the summer. Because only the East of Europe stands out from the season. We wanted to see whether there is in Ukraine seasonality by coronavirus disease,” he said.
Four scenarios have to respect the population to quarantine restrictions.
“We can go when there is no seasonality, and we implement quarantine measures are not fully and imperfectly — then we can go up to 7 thousand deaths. If seasonality will be 100% of zero, that is, in the summer do not have to register the cases, then we should be no more than 1000 dead,” he said.
In the Ukraine the coronavirus died 966 people.
“So I can not say that we have the coronavirus has zero seasonality. Now we are moving on “yellow script,” moderate seasonality. That is, we come to 4 thousand dead before the end of the year. But this seasonality is not currently a specific and perfect factor. After the easing of quarantine for some reason, all felt that the quarantine was canceled. Therefore, this figure may vary”, — said Lyashko.
In the health Ministry admit that in fact cases could be four times greater than the revealed.
Note, in Ukraine, two days in a row a record the incidence of coronavirus. For the last days identified 829 new cases. Since the beginning of epidemic in Ukraine has infected 34 063 people died 966 and 15 447 — recovered.